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Post by mcstackn on Dec 22, 2017 19:19:25 GMT
I'm not sure what's wrong with me. I have done so much work to arrive at very solid preflop ranges for nearly any preflop situation that could arise, yet for some reason, during play, I deviate from these ranges for no apparent reason. I do this of course - and I used to do it a lot. So you know, the first time I successfully made it a point NOT to do this at when I was able to beat $200NL FR at Poker Stars.
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Post by mcstackn on Dec 26, 2017 1:42:08 GMT
Agreed.
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Post by mcstackn on Jan 1, 2018 18:40:01 GMT
I don't have a good idea of my exact win rate at Ignition $5nl Zone, but I'm going to pessimistically guess it is 5 bb/100. I have literally zero idea what my win rate is at $10nl Zone as I've never played a single hand of it. But if I assume that I have a positive win rate at it, which I do assume is true, then my best guess is that it should be more than at least 2.5 bb/100. Which if I assume the worst (2.5 bb/100) means it requires the same amount of hands as would $5nl, which is perfect as it makes the math calculations much easier to do. And if my rate is actually higher than that, then things just work out quicker and I won't complain. But I have to assume something, so I'll assume what I consider to be worst case scenario to be true.
$500 profit at 5 bb/100 means I need to play 200,000 hands. I will assume that I get about 450 hands per hour, it's closer to 500 actually, but I like being pessimistic in these assumptions. At 450 hands per hour, I need to play 444 hours. If I play a ton of hours every day, I can be done by the end of January. But I'm not going to commit to such insane grinding hours. What I am going to do for now, is commit to playing 50,000 hands before the new year and at that point, I can see where I stand and see what must be done. It might be easier and faster to switch to regular games, have a higher win rate and a higher hourly despite playing fewer hands per hour. And given that I know I average more than 450 hands per hour, and I am confident that my actual win rate is higher than 5 bb/100 at $5nl Zone, and quite hopeful that my win rate at $10 nl Zone is also higher than 2.5 bb/100, there is a good chance that things go faster than this plan indicates. But at least if I crank out these 50,000 hands, I will have a much better idea of what is and what is not possible in the Zone games for my current skill set.
(sometimes when I reply with quote, I don't get a dialog box in which to type).
Unless my impression was incorrect, with your current skill set you can beat 25NL Zone very nicely IMO. It's loaded with regs who are WAY under-aggro and there are plenty of fish. I thought maybe they went to WPN, learned how to play, and went back. It doesn't seem that way. It seemed soft and easy to beat.
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Post by mcstackn on Feb 4, 2018 5:33:21 GMT
One reason I stopped playing is because of the cheating on WPN.
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Post by mcstackn on Feb 18, 2018 3:31:38 GMT
Trading is fun, for sure.
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Post by mcstackn on Sept 3, 2018 6:54:17 GMT
Spaz. I call him there.
I don't like his play at all - which is mostly obvious I guess, but on a few levels.
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Post by mcstackn on Sept 12, 2018 19:32:55 GMT
I'm sure you will be at $25NL in no time. $10NL at Ignition/Bovada is so soft and so easy to get value... just be patient and wait for good flops. $25 is soft too. It's $50 there that can be more troublesome.
Your volume is good, for sure.
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Post by mcstackn on Sept 14, 2018 18:15:25 GMT
So positive and introspective. You must feel like you have a good grasp on it this time.
Fun? Makes me want to play.
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Post by mcstackn on Sept 21, 2018 6:46:42 GMT
I like the river calling post.
70 hours is not too much?
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Post by mcstackn on Sept 24, 2018 18:15:31 GMT
Wow that pot just came to you. Villain's stats look reggy but he had no problem making a huge pot and calling a deep raise on that board with a 3-way flop and no flush draw?
Does he level himself to think you are not calling the flop with a gutty? Were you bluffing a lot just before this hand? This player is not thinking at all. Poker is not dead?
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Post by mcstackn on Sept 26, 2018 8:45:01 GMT
It wasn't a gutshot, it was open ended...
Sorry I wasn't clear. I mean in the villain's eyes he's calling because you whiffed AT and are bluffing. Im trying to figure out what he thinks you have that you play that way for him to call. But you answered most of that anyway. I still don't see what he beats that you play that way for value.
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Post by mcstackn on Oct 5, 2018 1:42:24 GMT
That's a funny story about the bet slider.
I have been playing a bit here and there and the games are great. Hopefully the trend continues.
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Post by mcstackn on Oct 16, 2018 20:18:36 GMT
Cant you create and save them in a dedicated folder, such as C:\pokernotes?
This way you would not have to rely on the recent files list.
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Post by mcstackn on Nov 15, 2018 18:54:57 GMT
Does Snowie consider whether you are playing at WPN or Ignition? Maybe my poker skills are outdated but I would be pretty sure that you should have different aggression factors and fold facing bet stats depending on the qualities and types of opponents.
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Post by mcstackn on Nov 29, 2018 1:42:35 GMT
Wow - that's good news.
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